A probabilistic game-theoretic model is developed within both a static and a dynamic framework to capture adversary–defender conflict in the presence of backlash. I find that not accounting for backlash in counteradversary policies may be costly to the target government. But to minimize adversarial backlash requires understanding how backlash emerges and if, and how, adversaries strategize to goad target governments into policies that induce backlash. The dynamic version of the model shows that when backlash occurs with a time lag, an escalation of the conflict is likely to occur.
Mohtadi, Hamid. 2016. "Risk-Mitigating Policies and Adversarial Behavior: Case of Backlash." Risk Analysis (June). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12636/full