Catch Them Coming and Going: Probabilistic Pathway Projection to Counter Foreign Fighters

The Analysis and Production (A) Division of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) identified a requirement for an assessment of the possible transportation corridors used by foreign fighters when traveling to and from Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL), specifically focusing on transportation networks in Europe, North Africa, and the Levant. As part of this effort, START completed qualitative and quantitative research to assess the risk and the threats posed by foreign fighters in regards to international violence and influence. START also conducted geospatial transportation analyses to identify possible and most probable routes that could potentially support both licit and illicit movement of foreign fighters as well as modes of transport that could be used in such activities.