Extremist Pathways to Power: The Rise of Extremist Ideologies to State Dogma

Based on the literature review, researchers found that the legitimacy contest between Islamist movements and the states in which they operate is strongly marked by the “legitimacy crisis” of existing governments and state ideologies in the Muslim world. Islamist groups attempt to build legitimacy with constituents through appeals to a common identity, framing of an “indigenous” ideology, and the provision of public goods. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the research team identified 14 pathways by which extreme Islamists gained significant levels of political power. The most common pathway involved Islamist organizations providing social services in contexts of above-average linguistic fractionalization and economic contraction. Across the different pathways, the combination of Islamist group age and size contributed to success, as did the provision of social services. However, the presence of Western support for groups and their use of violence against their own constituents consistently inhibit electoral success. Across the case studies, several factors emerged as important in explaining electoral success. First, all successful groups used social service provision to build constituency support, consistent with the QCA findings. Secondly, successful parties were able to build alliances with other social and political groups, including but not limited to other Islamists. Third, most of the groups adopted some level of nationalist rhetoric that opposed intervention by foreign powers, specifically Western powers and the United States. Finally, a deciding factor in several cases, the disposition of the national military proved critical in electoral success being realized.