NGO Interventions: Influences on Terrorist Activity

Terrorist organizations (TOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) often advocate for the same oppressed communities. Both TOs and NGOs require the support of these constituents and the attention of the media in order to maintain legitimacy and recruit. Public support and attention is limited and difficult to acquire, placing TOs and NGOs in competition. Within the game theoretic framework, it is hypothesized that TOs will adjust their activities when faced with an NGO competitor. This study assesses the influence that international and local NGOs have on TOs in Lebanon and Turkey between 1987 and 2011. Results indicate minimal support for the hypothesized relationships. NGOs demonstrate limited marginal influence on TO activities in Lebanon and no influence in Turkey. Overall findings suggest two conclusions: in Lebanon and Turkey, NGO activities do not appear to increase TO violence and NGO campaign activities focused on de-escalating TO violence are not particularly effective.