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Modeling Terrorist Attack Cycles as a Stochastic Process: Analyzing Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Incidents


Modeling Terrorist Attack Cycles as a Stochastic Process: Analyzing Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Incidents

Abstract: 

To further the research agenda on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) attacks, we present a novel methodology for modeling a CBRN terrorist attack cycle as a stochastic process. With this model, we can investigate the following questions: Given an adversary’s intent to pursue unconventional weapons, what agents do different perpetrator types pursue? What is the likelihood of a CBRN adversary acquiring or deploying a weapon? At what stage is an adversary most likely to abort their planned attack or be interdicted by law enforcement? Our model successfully identifies correlations between perpetrator type, weapon type, and outcome.

Publication Information

Full Citation: 

Clark, Tyler A. and Thomas R. Guarrieri. 2020. "Modeling Terrorist Attack Cycles as a Stochastic Process: Analyzing Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Incidents." Journal of Applied Security Research (August). https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19361610.2020.1761743

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