Modeling Terrorist Attack Cycles as a Stochastic Process: Analyzing Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Incidents

To further the research agenda on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) attacks, we present a novel methodology for modeling a CBRN terrorist attack cycle as a stochastic process. With this model, we can investigate the following questions: Given an adversary’s intent to pursue unconventional weapons, what agents do different perpetrator types pursue? What is the likelihood of a CBRN adversary acquiring or deploying a weapon? At what stage is an adversary most likely to abort their planned attack or be interdicted by law enforcement? Our model successfully identifies correlations between perpetrator type, weapon type, and outcome.

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