Citation
Hsu, Henda; Vásquez, Bob Edward; McDowall, David. A Time-Series Analysis of Terrorism: Intervention, Displacement, and Diffusion of Benefits
. Justice Quarterly Vol 35, no. 4 (2018): 557-583. DOI: 10.1080/07418825.2017.1340501.
Findings
Drawing upon the effectiveness of situational crime control interventions, the author finds supports for the major conclusion that the security measures following September 11 had a large influence on targets both within and outside the US. Therefore, the displacement hypothesis that the target-hardening efforts within the US after September, 11, 2001 would reduce attacks on domestic US targets but increase attacks on US targets abroad is not supported. Terrorists are primarily committed to the successful completion of their immediate goals and operations, and make decisions in relation to their capabilities. Significantly reducing the opportunities to attack the US within its borders did little to interrupt the way of offending for most foreign terrorist groups with proclivities for targeting the US. Consequently, they need not respond by increasing their attacks against US targets so as to continue unabated with their offending. Furthermore, due to the prodigious challenges of carrying out attacks against distant targets, only a handful of anti-US terrorist organizations have conducted operations in other countries. Taken together, most foreign terrorists with deep anti-US ideology are embroiled in local conflicts and operate predominantly at home against non-US targets. Observing statistically significant reductions in both domestic and abroad terrorist attacks post September 11 convincingly rejects the displacement hypothesis.
Tags
Lever of Power: Law Enforcement Method: Quantitative Geoscope: Global UN Region: No specific geographic focus DOD Region: No specific geographic focus Country: USA Type: Article Year: 2018
Research Background
- Research questions
- Do counterterrorism measures merely relocate terrorist activity to a different location? (inferred)
- Hypotheses
- The target-hardening efforts within the US after September, 11, 2001 reduced attacks on domestic US targets, but increased attacks on US targets abroad.
Variables or Concepts
- Independent variables & concepts
- Within USt−1 attacks
- Outside USt−1 attacks
- September 11
- Dependent variables & concepts
- Within US terrorist incidents
- Outside US terrorist incidents against US interests and targets abroad
Methodologies
- Quantitative method description
- Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis of the intervention-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate changes in the frequency of terrorist attacks against the US after September 11, 2001 within and outside the borders of the US
Time Frame
- Start: 1994
- End: 2013