Publication details | Global Responses to Asymmetric Threats

Summary
Analytical Information

Citation

Gil-Alana, Luís A.; Barros, Carlos P. A Note on the Effectiveness of National Anti-Terrorist Policies: Evidence from ETA. Conflict Management & Peace Science Vol 27, no. 1 (2010): 28-46. DOI: 10.1177/0738894209352130.

Findings

This study finds more evidence in support of the hypothesis that proactive deterrence policies are important for decreasing the terrorist attacks than against it. Proactive policies are offensive by nature with the government confronting the terrorist group directly with police forces and they can assume many forms, including retaliatory raids against safe havens, infiltrating the terrorist group and gathering intelligence, etc. Traditional studies in terrorism argue that such an approach offers the best way to limit terrorist organizations' activities. The study shows that the signing of the political pact of Ajuria-Enea, formed by all political parties with representation in the Basque Parliament with the exception of HB (the party that represented ETA), was statistically significant in reducing the number of ETA killings. Other types of proactive deterrence policies were also associated with a decrease in ETA killings, including the shutdown of the newspaper and the banning of HB. Deaths of ETA members had the opposite effect, specifically a negative effect on the elimination of terrorism, while arrests of ETA members had no impact. Finally, there is evidence that the start of French collaboration with the Spanish government in 1984 had a positive impact on reducing the number of ETA killings. The author does not discuss or present the results of the impact that the signing of the political pact of Lizarra-Garazi, formed exclusively by the Basque nationalist parties including HB, had on diminishing ETA killings.

This study does not find support for the second hypothesis, specifically that defensive deterrence policies counteract terrorism. While it is sometimes argued that defensive policies protect potential targets and thus make attacks more costly or reduce the likelihood of success. But this study shows that the general amnesty of ETA prisoners, a defensive political measure, was highly ineffective probably because at the time of this measure (October 1977) other strong repressive actions were being carried out against ETA. The setting up of a Basque police force, a defensive retaliatory policy, was also insignificant.

Research Background

Research questions
1. What is the best policy is for counteracting terrorist groups: proactive political/ retaliatory deterrence policies or reactive political/retaliatory deterrence policies?
Hypotheses
1. Proactive deterrence policies are important for decreasing the terrorism attacks.
2. Defensive deterrence policies aiming to counteract terrorism have a positive impact in controlling terrorism attacks.

Variables or Concepts

Independent variables & concepts
1. Signing of the political pact of Ajuria-Enea
2. Signing of the political pact of Lizarra-Garazi
3. Shutdown of EGIN and EGIN IRRATIA, a newspaper and a radio station banned by Spanish authorities
4. Banning of Herri Batasuna, the political party which represented ETA politically in parliament
5. Arrest of ETA leaders
6. Deaths of ETA members
7. French collaboration in the fight against ETA
8. Amnesty for ETA prisoners
9. Setting up of a police force in the Basque Country
Dependent variables & concepts
1. Number of Euskadi Ta Askatasuna killings

Methodologies

Quantitative method description
1. Poisson ZIP model with heterogeneity; Poisson with heterogeneity model; Poisson random coefficient model
2. Poisson counting regression model, descriptive statistics

Time Frame

Start: 1968
End: 2006