A Department of Homeland Security Emeritus Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland

Threat Assessment


Threat Assessment

Project Title Investigators Project Period
Global Terrorism Database (GTD) Acceleration Erin Miller January, 2019 to January, 2020
Global Terrorism Database (GTD) Erin Miller, Gary LaFree, Laura Dugan June, 2001 to January, 2020
Developing Integrated Radiological and Nuclear Detection Architecture for the Interior and International Mission Space Steve Sin, Marcus A. Boyd September, 2016 to September, 2019
Program to Prepare Communities for Complex Coordinated Terrorist Attacks Erin Miller October, 2017 to August, 2019
A Comparative Study of Violent Extremism and Gangs Gary LaFree, Scott H. Decker, David C. Pyrooz January, 2015 to March, 2019
Dissuading Adversaries and their Radiological/Nuclear Pathways: Integrating Deterrence Theory and Analytics in the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA) Amy Pate, Brandon Behlendorf, Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer, Steve Sin, Hamid Mohtadi, Marcus A. Boyd October, 2013 to September, 2018
A Toolkit for Preventing Targeted Violence on College Campuses Gary LaFree July, 2017 to July, 2018
Resources and Resilience: A Computational Model of Strategic Influence January, 2018 to June, 2018
Country Reports on Terrorism - Statistical Annex Gary LaFree, Erin Miller May, 2012 to May, 2018
Profiling the CB Adversary: Motivation, Psychology and Decision Gary Ackerman April, 2016 to December, 2017
International and Regional Architecture Reports Brandon Behlendorf, Emily Iarocci, Gary Ackerman, Steve Sin May, 2012 to September, 2015
Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Process John Sawyer, Steve Sin September, 2014 to June, 2015
PRND Capability Development Framework Mapping John Sawyer, Marcus A. Boyd December, 2012 to June, 2015
Insider Threat for Inbound International Air Cargo Gary Ackerman October, 2013 to March, 2015
Integration of International Architecture Analysis Brandon Behlendorf, Emily Iarocci, Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer September, 2013 to March, 2015
Organized and/or Transnational Crime/Drug Cartel Nexus with Illicit Radiological/Nuclear Trade, Smuggling and/or Terrorism in Europe and North, Sahelian and West Africa Amy Pate, John Sawyer, Marcus A. Boyd, Steve Sin September, 2013 to March, 2015
Anatomizing the Behavior of Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries Gary Ackerman, Victor Asal June, 2012 to May, 2014
New Analytical Methods for the Exploitation of Open-Source Structured Databases to Enhance Situational Awareness for Effective Counter-WMD Strategies Ronald Breiger, Gary Ackerman, Victor Asal, H. Brinton Milward, R. Karl Rethemeyer March, 2010 to March, 2014
Anatomizing Radiological and Nuclear Non-State Adversaries Gary Ackerman, Jeffrey Bale, R. Karl Rethemeyer June, 2012 to January, 2014
Radiological/Nuclear Adversaries Future Project Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer October, 2012 to December, 2013
Validating Models of Adversary Behavior Jun Zhuang July, 2012 to December, 2013
Border Crossings and Terrorist Attacks in the United States: Lessons for Protecting Against Dangerous Entrants Brent Smith, Erin Miller, Gary LaFree, Kathleen Smarick March, 2010 to August, 2012
Domestic Weapons of Mass Destruction: Populations at Risk from U.S. Chemical Facilities Releases Susan Cutter June, 2008 to October, 2011
European Converts to Islam: An Evolving Threat? Emmanuel Karagiannis June, 2009 to May, 2011
Behavioral Assessments Based on Automated Text Analyses James Pennebaker November, 2008 to May, 2010
Where the Extremes May Touch: The Potential for Collaboration Between Islamist, Right- and Left-Wing Extremists Gary Ackerman, Jeffrey Bale July, 2005 to September, 2009
Population Vulnerability Analysis, Spatial Social Science, and GIS Susan Cutter May, 2005 to May, 2009
Terrorist Groups and Weapons of Mass Destruction Gary Ackerman, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, R. Karl Rethemeyer, Victor Asal July, 2005 to May, 2008
Rehabilitation and Reintegration for CVE Programs William Braniff
Project Title Publication Date START Authors Publication Type
A Three-Stage Evacuation Decision-Making and Behavior Model for the Onset of an Attack June 2017 Zhuang, Jun Journal Article
An Army of One: Assessing CBRN Pursuit and Use by Lone Wolves and Autonomous Cells January 2014 Ackerman, Gary; Pinson, Lauren Journal Article
Analyzing & Assessing Terrorist Threats March 2008 LaFree, Gary Conference Paper
Anatomizing Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries March 2014 Ackerman, Gary; Binder, Markus Research Brief
Anneli Botha, Terrorism in the Maghreb: The Transnationalisation of Domestic Terrorism (Pretoria/Tshwane: Institute for Security Studies) January 2010 Book Review
Assessing Terrorist Risks: Developing an Algorithm-Based Model for Law Enforcement January 2012 Regens, James Journal Article
Assessing the Bioweapons Threat August 2015 Ackerman, Gary Journal Article
Attitudes Regarding Becoming an Engaged Bystander for Targeted Violence Prevention May 2020 Weine, Stevan Journal Article
August 2013 Security Threat to Americans Abroad August 2013 Miller, Erin Background Report
Autologistic Models for Benchmark Risk or Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Terrorism Outcomes October 2017 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents December 2007 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Characteristics of Lone-Wolf Violent Offenders: a Comparison of Assassins and School Attackers February 2013 McCauley, Clark; Moskalenko, Sophia Journal Article
China's Pipeline Diplomacy: Assessing the Threat of Low-Intensity Conflicts January 2010 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Coping with Uncertainty in Adversarial Risk Analysis January 2017 Bier, Vicki Journal Article
Countering the Inhumane: Modeling Probable Pathways for Human Smuggling and Trafficking Along the U.S.-Mexico Border May 2015 Behlendorf, Brandon; Zhuang, Jun; Johns, Mila Research Brief
Cross-National Patterns of Terrorism: Comparing Trajectories for Total, Attributed and Fatal Attacks, 1970-2006 November 2009 LaFree, Gary; Dugan, Laura Journal Article
CVE Field Principles for Local Government Agencies December 2016 Beutel, Alejandro Discussion Point
Democracy, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism December 2009 Phillips, Brian Journal Article
Determining Extremist Organizations' Likelihood of Conducting Cyber Attacks June 2016 Washburn, Rhyner; Sin, Steve Conference Paper
Dilettantes, Ideologues, and the Weak: Terrorists Who Don't Kill January 2008 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
Discussion Point: Is Aaron Alexis part of a larger phenomenon of lone-actor grievance-based violence? September 2013 McCauley, Clark Discussion Point
Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis August 2016 Zhuang, Jun Journal Article
Early Detection of Terrorism Outbreaks Using Prospective Space–Time Scan Statistics October 2012 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study March 2017 Ackerman, Gary Journal Article
Extreme Hatred: Revisiting the Hate Crime and Terrorism Relationship May 2016 Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven Research Brief
Five Myths about the Iraq Jihad January 2008 Journal Article
Foreshadowing Targeted Violence: Assessing Leakage of Intent by Public Mass Murderers December 2017 Horgan, John Journal Article
Gauging the Threat August 2013 Ackerman, Gary; Pinson, Lauren Journal Article
Gray Zone Crises in MENA and Eastern Europe March 2017 Ellis, Devin; Murauskaite, Egle; Wilkenfeld, Jonathan; Gabriel, Rachel; Capps, Ron Research Brief
Have Motivations for Terrorism Changed? November 2005 Crenshaw, Martha Book Chapter
Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami: Evaluating the Threat Posed by a Radical Islamic Group that Remains Nonviolent February 2006 McCauley, Clark; Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Interfaith Programs on College Campuses: Lessons Learned March 2011 Wilkenfeld, Jonathan; Smarick, Kathleen Research Brief
Investigating the Applicability of Macro-Level Criminology Theory to Terrorism: A County-Level Analysis November 2014 Adamczyk, Amy; Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven; Parkin, William Journal Article
Investigating the Applicability of Situational Crime Prevention to the Public Mass Violence Context December 2019 Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven Journal Article
It is Hard to Predict the Future: Evolving Nature of Threats and Vulnerabilities January 2006 Ackerman, Gary Journal Article
Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance within a Terrorist Organization November 2013 Horgan, John; Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
Political Islam in Central Asia: On the Trail of Hizb ut-Tahrir January 2010 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Political Islam in Central Asia: The Role of Hizb al-Tahrir February 2010 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Political Islam in the former Soviet Union: Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan Compared November 2009 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Book
Political Islam in Uzbekistan: Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami February 2006 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Profiling the WMD Terrorism Threat November 2008 Ackerman, Gary; Bale, Jeffrey Book Chapter
Reloading the Armalite? Victims and Targets of Violent Dissident Irish Republicanism, 2007-2015 April 2016 Horgan, John Journal Article
Review of Dershowitz, Why Terrorism Works: Understanding the Threat, Responding to the Challenge February 2005 Freilich, Joshua Book Review
Scanning the Consequences of Demographic Change for the Emerging Landscape February 2016 Leuprecht, Christian Book Chapter
Terrorism-Centric Behavior Recognition and Adversarial Threat Forecasting January 2016 Regens, James Journal Article
Terrorism-Centric Behaviors and Adversarial Threat Awareness January 2016 Regens, James Journal Article
Terrorist Threats and Police Performance November 2009 Weisburd, David Journal Article
The Choice of Terrorism: Terrorist Behavior by Middle Eastern Minorities At Risk Organizations January 2010 Asal, Victor Journal Article
The DNI's Open Source Center: An Organizational Communication Perspective February 2007 Bean, Hamilton Journal Article
The Global Terrorism Database (GTD): Accomplishments and Challenges March 2010 LaFree, Gary Journal Article
The Nature of the Beast: Terrorist: The Organizational and Network Characteristics of Organizational Lethality January 2008 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
The Rise of Political Islam in Kazakhstan: Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami February 2007 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
The Security Dimension of Pakistan's Floods September 2010 Singh, Rashmi Journal Article
The Softest of Targets: A Study on Terrorist Target Selection July 2009 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
The thin red line March 2013 Johns, Mila Op-ed
Understanding Law Enforcement Intelligence Processes July 2014 Carter, David L.; Carter, Jeremy G.; Chermak, Steven START Reports
Understanding Tornado Warnings, False Alarms, and Complacency September 2016 Liu, Brooke; Roberts, Holly; Egnoto, Michael Fact Sheet
Vulnerability of U.S. Cities to Environmental Hazards June 2007 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
What is lone wolf terrorism? November 2009 LaFree, Gary; Freilich, Joshua; Simi, Peter; Chermak, Steven Book Chapter
Why We Are Vulnerable June 2007 Tierney, Kathleen Journal Article
Image Title Job Title Institution
Adam Martin

Junior Researcher – Geospatial Analyst

 University of Maryland
Amy Pate Amy Pate

Executive Director & Research Director, START

 University of Maryland
Barnett Koven Barnett S. Koven

Training Director

Near-peer Competition Lead Researcher

Counterterrorism Lead Researcher

 University of Maryland
Clark McCauley Clark McCauley

Professor of Psychology

 Bryn Mawr College
Egle Murauskaite

Senior Researcher & Simulation Developer, ICONS Project, START

 University of Maryland
Emmanuel Karagiannis Emmanuel Karagiannis

Senior Lecturer of International Relations

 King's College
Erik Dahl Erik Dahl

Associate Professor of National Security Affairs

 Naval Postgraduate School
START Researcher Gabrielle Matuzsan Gabrielle Matuzsan

Analyst, Government Accountability Office
Gary Ackerman Gary Ackerman

Associate Professor, SUNY Albany

 University at Albany, State University of New York
Hamid Mohtadi

Professor of Economics

 University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
Helena Craig

Junior Researcher, UWT

 University of Maryland
Herbert Tinsley

Analyst, Government Accountability Office
James Halverson

Researcher, START

 University of Maryland
Jeremy G. Carter

Associate Professor and Director of Criminal Justice, School of Public and Environmental Affairs

 Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis
John Sawyer John Sawyer

Director of Strategic Corporate Research Relationships

 University of Maryland
Joshua House

GIS Coordinator, START

 University of Maryland
Lyubov Mincheva

Executive Director, Graduate Program in International Relations and Security Studies

 University of Sofia, Bulgaria
Michelle Jacome Michelle Jacome

Operations Officer, World Bank
Mila Jonns Mila Johns

Former Researcher

 None
Nil Satana

Visiting Associate Professor

 University of Maryland
Omi Hodwitz

Assistant Professor

 University of Idaho
Peter Krause

Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boston College

Research Affiliate, MIT Security Studies Program

 Boston College, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Rashmi Singh Rashmi Singh

Associate Professor

 The Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais
Rhyner Washburn

Cyber Intelligence Researcher, START

 University of Maryland
Roberta Belli

Security Information Analyst, United Nations Department of Safety and Security

 United Nations Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS)
Salma Bouziani

Project Manager/Researcher, START

 University of Maryland
Samuel D. Henkin

Assistant Research Scientist, START

 University of Maryland
Sarah Spalding Sarah Spalding

Research Associate
Steve Sin

Director, Unconventional Weapons and Technology (UWT)

Subject Matter Expert Instructor, National Center for Security & Preparedness

 University of Maryland
Tyler A. Clark

Junior Researcher, UWT

 University of Maryland
Victor Asal

Associate Professor of Political Science and Chair of Public Administration

 University at Albany, State University of New York
Yan Jin Yan Jin

Professor of Public Relations

 University of Georgia
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