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New START model forecasts the flow of foreign fighters


New START model forecasts the flow of foreign fighters

May 4, 2016Jessica Rivinius

A new report from START assesses the possible transportation corridors used by foreign fighters when travelling to and from territories controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The model presented by START’s GIS researchers forecasts large flows of persons/materials and shows how potential deterrence/mitigation activities can impact those flows.

Though most open-source reporting focuses on refugee flows from Greece to Macedonia, Serbia and then further into the European Union, the new START model identified chokepoints in places both expected (Limassol, Cyprus; various Grecian Islands) and unexpected (Igoumenitsa, Greece; Odessa, Ukraine).

The START model can be used to inform decision makers, allowing them to test outcomes of potential policy decisions or forecast how closing chokepoints could alter current pathways. This methodology can assist in a cost/benefit analysis necessary to manage assets to thwart returning ISIL operatives.

To read the full report, click here.

To read the research brief, click here.